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By 2030, You’ll Be Living in a World That’s Run by Google

2030 年,你將生活在一個由谷歌主導的世界

I was asked on Quora what Google will look like in 2030. Since that is one of the most important issues the world is facing right now, I took some time to answer it in full. 

有人在Quora網站上問我:在2030 年時,谷歌會是什麼樣子?由於這是世界必須面對的最重要的問題之一,我決定多花點時間來好好回答這個問題。

Larry Page, one of Google’s two co-founders, once said off-handedlythat Google is not about building a search engine. As he said it, “Oh, we’re really making an AI”. Google right now is all about building the world brain that will take care of every person, all the time and everywhere.

By 2030, Google will have that World Brain in existence, and it will look after all of us. And that’s quite possibly both the best and worst thing that could happen to humanity.

To explain that claim, let me tell you a story of how your day is going to unfold in 2030.

 

Larry Page 是谷歌公司的兩位共同創辦人之一,他曾經在無稿發言中表示,谷歌的目的並不是建造一個搜尋引擎:「喔,我們其實在製造一個人工智慧。」谷歌現在的目的是製造一個世界的大腦,而且這個大腦可以照顧每一個人,隨時隨地、無遠弗屆。在2030 年,谷歌將會讓世界大腦成真,而且它將照顧我們所有人。而那很可能將同時帶來最好以及最壞的事,兩者都可能發生在人類身上。

 

為了解釋這段話,讓我來告訴你一個故事,這個故事叫「你在2030 年的日常生活」:

 

2030 – A Google World

2030 年:谷歌的世界

You wake up in the morning, but you’re warm in your room. Why? Because Nest – your AI-based air conditioner – knows exactly when you need to wake up, and warms the room you’re in.

 And who acquired Nest three years ago for $3.2 billion USD? Google did.

Who programmed that autonomous car? Google did. Who acquired Waze – a crowdsourcing navigation app? Google did.

I can go on and on, but the basic idea is that the entire world is going to become connected in the next twenty years. Many items will have sensors in and on them, and will connect to the cloud. And Google is not only going to produce many of these sensors and appliances (such as the Google Assistant, autonomous cars, Nest, etc.) but will also assign a digital assistant to every person, that will understand the user better than that person understands himself.

 

早上,你起床了,但是你不覺得冷,房間很溫暖。為什麼?因為Nest (你的人工智慧空調)知道你醒來時的時間,並且它會將你所在房間的溫度調高。是誰在三年前用三十二億美金收購Nest 呢?是谷歌。是誰規劃自動駕駛汽車呢?是谷歌。是誰收購Waze(一個群眾外包導航應用程式)?是谷歌

 

這樣的例子我可以一直說下去,但是總之基本觀念就是,全世界將走向下一個二十年,而在下個二十年中,全世界將被連結在一起。許多物品將有傳感器,可能會設置在物品裡或物品表面,而且會與雲端連結。另外,谷歌將不只製造許多這種傳感器、應用程式(例如:谷歌個人助理、自動駕駛汽車、人工智慧空調 Nest… ),同時它也會給每一個人一位數位助理,這將讓谷歌更瞭解使用者,甚至會比使用者本身更瞭解使用者。

 

The Upside

好的一面

I probably don’t have to explain why the Google World Brain will make our lives much more pleasant. The perfect coordination and optimization of our day-to-day dealings will ensure that we need to invest less resources (energy, time, concentration) to achieve a high level of life quality. I see that primarily as a good thing.

So what’s the problem?

 

我可能不需要解釋為什麼谷歌世界大腦會讓我們的世界更好。這完美的協調和優化,讓我們的日常生活更好,確保我們只需要用最少的資源(能量、時間、集中力)就能得到高品質的生活。我覺得那是好事。

 

那問題是什麼呢?

 

The Downside

不好的一面

Here’s the thing: the digital world suffers from what’s called The One Winner Effect”. Basically it means that there’s only place for one great winner in every sector. So there’s only one Facebook – the second largest social media network in English is Twitter, with only ~319 million users. That’s nothing compared to Facebook’s 1.86 billion users. Similarly, Google controls ~65% of the online search market. That’s a huge number when you realize that competitors like Yahoo and Bing – large and established services – control most of the rest ~35%. So again, one big winner.

So what’s the problem, you ask?

Google is creating such a soft monopoly.

I’m sure some ardent souls will, but most of humanity doesn’t care deeply enough, or doesn’t even have the options to stop using Google. This is a Google World.

And Google knows it, too.

 

負面影響是:數位世界將面臨「一人獨霸效應」。基本上這個意思是,傳感器競爭的霸主只會有一人,就像是臉書只有一個,排名第二的英文社群媒體是推特,但是它的使用者只有3.19 億人,這和臉書18 億六千萬人的使用者人數比起來,實在不算什麼。與這個狀況相似,谷歌控制了百分之六十五的網路搜尋市場。這是很大的數字,雅虎和Bing 這樣規模大又穩定的公司,總共也才控制了剩下的百分之三十五的大部分市場。所以我要再強調一次,「一人獨霸」。

 

所以問題到底是什麼?你可能會問。

 

谷歌正在創造一個柔軟的壟斷。

 

我很確定某些具有強烈靈魂的人會思考這件事,但大部分的人類並不會深思,或是根本沒有其他選項,無法停止使用谷歌。

 

這是一個谷歌的世界。

 

而且谷歌很清楚這點。

 

Google Flexes it’s Muscles

谷歌應用平台(  Google Flexes)是谷歌的支柱

 

Recently, around 200 people got banned from using Google services because they cheated Google by reselling the Pixel smartphone. Those people woke up one morning, and found out they couldn’t log into their Gmail, that they couldn’t acess their Google Docs, and if they were living in the future – they would’ve probably found out they can’t use Google’s autonomous cars and other apps on the street. They were essentially sentenced to a digital death.

Now, public uproar caused Google to back down and revive those people’s accounts, but this episode shows you the power that Google are starting to amass.

So who’s going to stand up and talk smack about Google? Not me, that’s for sure. I love Google.

To sum things up, Google is not required by law to serve everyone, or even to be ‘fair’ in its recommendations about services.

So in conclusion, it’s going to be a Google world, and I love Google. Now please share this answer, since I’m not sure Google will!

Note: This is simply the nature of the world at the moment: digital technologies give rise to big winners. 

最近,有大約二百個人被停權,不得再使用谷歌服務,因為他們轉賣谷歌的 Pixel 智慧型手機。這些人在某日早晨醒來,然後發現他們無發登入他們的Gmail 谷歌電子郵件信箱,也無法進入他們的谷歌文件頁面,如果他們是活在未來,那他們將發現自己無法使用谷歌的自動駕駛汽車、其他街上的應用程式,事實上,他們會得到一場「數位死亡」。現在,輿論一片嘩然,這讓谷歌讓步,並且恢復那兩百個人的帳戶,但是這件事告訴你,谷歌的力量已經開始積累。所以,有誰要站出來談談谷歌?不會是我,我很確定。我可愛死谷歌了。

結論是,並沒有法律規定谷歌要服務每個人,或是規定谷歌要遵守服務介紹裡的「公平」聲明。所以,未來將是谷歌的世界,而且我愛死谷歌了。現在請分享這個答案,因為我可不知道谷歌可能會採取什麼行動。

附註:這是此刻這個世界的自然狀態:數位科技讓霸主崛起。

「語音合成由賽微科技提供」

 

來源:futurism

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